“We’re coming off four years of booming growth,” explains Mathilde Lion. “These last few years have been driven by double-digit performances in North American and European markets, even if a slight slowdown began to be felt at the end of 2024.” This phenomenon became more pronounced at the beginning of 2025, with a decline observed for the first time in three countries: France, Germany and Canada. “Nothing alarming at this stage,” she adds. “The first quarter is not the most important of the year.”

Highly contrasting dynamics by region

Market structures vary greatly from one region to another. “In Europe and South America, perfume remains at the heart of consumption. In China, it’s skincare. And in the United States, make-up still dominates.” explains the expert.
Two categories stand out in all countries: perfume and hair care.

“Perfume continues to grow across all zones, including China. As for prestige capillaries, they are still very underdeveloped, especially in Europe, but are accelerating rapidly. Conversely, in North America, the two pillars of skincare and make-up are experiencing a slight decline. And that’s important, because the United States alone accounts for almost half of the global sales we track at Circana, …