Circana has released its analysis of trends for the 2025 holiday season. The firm describes a season marked by caution, anticipation, and strong price sensitivity, in a context where consumers remain resilient but more selective than ever.
According to the study, more than eight out of ten shoppers expect higher prices this year, a perceived consequence of import regulations and customs tariffs. Despite this, spending intentions are up 3% on average compared to 2024.
The beauty, technology, and home categories appear to be the most dynamic.
The stated priorities remain clear: finding the best price, promotional offers, and free shipping. All these factors influence consumers’ choice of where to shop.
Self-gifting, on the other hand, remains stable at 21%.
Santa Claus is wasting no time
The report highlights a change in the shopping calendar: 44% of consumers plan to start their shopping earlier, mainly to protect themselves from possible price increases.
Conversely, last-minute purchases are expected to decline.
The role of social media
According to the study, recommendations from influencers on social media will have a greater impact on purchasing decisions.
“Consumer volatility is evident in their feelings about the 2025 holiday season, which means that its outcome will be less predictable,” comments Marshal Cohen, Chief Retail Advisor at Circana.
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